Market breadth wasn’t great this year. That’s not news to anyone that closely follows the markets. Large cap stock indexes have touched new highs in each of the last 14 months, but the cumulative advance/decline line for NYSE stocks stopped going up in June.
It’s been common to hear about how the markets are being dominated by ‘Big Tech’ or ‘FAANG’ or ‘MAGMA’ or whatever we’re calling them these days. It’s true that mega cap stocks have helped push markets higher this year, and it’s true that the average stock is lagging benchmark indices. But the average stock lagging the index is a pretty normal occurrence. Here’s how U.S. stocks have done over the last 25 years.
In 2021, 42% of issues in the Russell 3000 trailed the index, roughly in-line with the average over the last 25 years. Moreover, that’s a significant improvement over 2020, when only 32% of members outperformed – the lowest participation since the internet bubble. Last year’s performance really was dominated by the mega caps.
This year the strength broadened from mega to large cap stocks. But as I’ve covered several times this year, mid and small cap stocks were largely left behind. Many of those companies, in fact, have been more than left behind. They’ve been crushed. And that’s what makes this year abnormal.
The distribution of returns is unusually wide for a year with so little index volatility. The winners are winning by more, and the losers are losing by more. Here’s how each decile has performed relative to the median this year compared to typical performance.
In a year where the Russell 3000 is set to finish nearly 25% higher (10% more than the median since 1995), the number of stocks set to finish the year 50% lower than where they started is twice as high as an average year.
Of the last 10 times that 5% or more of equity issues lost half their value during the year, the index has finished positive only 3 times: 1998 (+22%), 1999 (+19%), and 2007 (+3%). We now get to add 2021 to the list.
Each of those prior instances occurred shortly before a bear market began, so does that mean we’re headed for trouble? Perhaps. But don’t forget U.S. stocks rose 30% from the end of 1998 to the 2000 peak. Breadth alone is not a great timing tool.
Nothing in this post or on this site is intended as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Posts on Means to a Trend are meant for informational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in posts. Please see my Disclosure page for more information.
Since last September, growth-oriented sectors and their value-tilted counterparts have alternated in leadership roles to propel U.S. stocks steadily higher. One month would be dominated by Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services, and the next by Energy, Materials, Industrials, and Financials. The only consistent action has come from the group more commonly associated with risk aversion – Safety sectors underperformed in virtually every period. Until now that is.
Health Care, Real Estate, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have each outperformed the S&P 500 Index by more than 5% since mid-November.
Consumer Staples are threatening to break out of a multi-year downtrend relative to the S&P. The sector spent the first eleven months of 2021 setting lower highs and lower lows, but momentum actually troughed back in January. On the most recent decline, RSI failed to even reach oversold territory. During the last few weeks of trading, the ratio has broken a downtrend line and closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since last spring.
The Utilities sector looks similar, with momentum improving throughout 2021 and failing to get oversold on the most recent decline.
Real Estate set its low vs. the S&P 500 back in January at the exact same place it bottomed in 2009.
The ratio is above a rising 200-day moving average but still battling resistance set up by the 2018 lows. Another week like the last would turn that overhead supply into support.
The problem with leadership by sectors like these, however, is that it’s rarely a sign of healthy market action (Utilities tend to outperform not by rising more than the rest of the market, but by falling less). Perhaps this time is different, though.
While broad equity indexes have certainly seen increased volatility of late, they haven’t really experienced a major decline. Instead, the outperformance by defensive areas has been attributable to good old fashioned new highs.
Consumer Staples have screamed higher, breaking through resistance created in August and October.
The same goes for Utilities.
And Health Care.
And Real Estate.
Leadership by Safety, then, could just be a hallmark of healthy rotation. After all, if there’s one thing we know about new all time highs, it’s that they aren’t bearish. And it’s hard to picture a scenario where 4 of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors continue setting new all-time highs, but stocks overall are in a major decline.
In a world where no stocks can sustain breakouts, equity gains will be hard to come by.
Nothing in this post or on this site is intended as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Posts on Means to a Trend are meant for informational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in posts. Please see my Disclosure page for more information.
Bonds were in fashion again last week. With equity markets around the globe under pressure, fixed income rallied, sending 30-year U.S. Treasury yields to their lowest level since January. Thirty year yields set a post-COVID high near 2.5% in the spring, but then dropped through support near 2.25% – the place yields set major bottoms in 2014 and 2016. Now-broken support at the summer lows near 1.75% should act as near-term resistance on any rally
Moving down the curve, 10-year bonds rallied last week too, though yields are still above their summer lows. The highs near 1.75% have been tough resistance since the spring.
Zooming out, 10s are stuck at a place with plenty of memory over the last decade. The area near 1.5% was the bottom in 2012, 2016, and again in 2019.
Medium and short-term rates have a different signature altogether. Five-year yields have risen steadily since late summer and set their most recent swing high only a month ago:
Similarly, 2-year yields have accelerated since September, around the time Fed officials started putting a timetable on tapering their accommodative monetary policy.
The impact of falling long-term and rising short-term rates on term spreads has been pronounced. The difference between 30 and 5-year interest rates has collapsed from 1.75% to about 0.50%. The 10s-2s spread has suffered a similar fate:
If we’ve already seen the economic-cycle peak for term spreads, it will be a disappointment for financial institutions that borrow deposits at short-term rates and lend them at longer-term ones, pocketing the difference. Banks enjoyed peak spreads closer to 3% following the last recession, double what was reached post-COVID.
Along with most of the equity market, the S&P 500 Banks Industry was under pressure last week. It peaked in October at the 138.2% extension from the COVID selloff, and has now fallen back below the May highs.
Not everyone hates lower long-term rates, though. Mortgage rates set their 2021 peak in the spring.
The cost of a mortgage is well above the record lows set in February, but at just 3.2% for an average 30-year term, is still less than at any time prior to the pandemic. The drop in 30-year Treasury yields may help explain why Homebuilders were able to buck the trend during last week’s market selloff. The group jumped to its best level since May, challenging the all-time high.
Nothing in this post or on this site is intended as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Posts on Means to a Trend are meant for informational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in posts. Please see my Disclosure page for more information.
I hope you all had a fantastic Thanksgiving. I’ve gained about 10 pounds since Wednesday evening and set a personal best with 4 pieces of pie on Thursday afternoon. Overall, I’m pretty happy with my performance over the holiday weekend, and I hope yours was just as great.
The global growth trade got punched in the mouth Friday morning. After reports of a new COVID variant (this one now known as omicron), world markets spent the final day of the week trading as though it were March 2020 all over again. Whether Friday’s selloff will turn into something more, or will be remembered as just another short-lived panic attack, remains to be seen. Several industries (mostly in the Tech sector), had enjoyed a strong November until last week, and near-term support remains largely intact.
For many other areas, though, former downside support has turned into overhead resistance. Here’s a few examples:
Crude oil fell 13% on the day.
The poor performance dropped the oil benchmark back below $77, a level that acted as support in 2011 and 2012, but then was the high-water mark for most of the next decade. You can add this to the list of failed breakouts that started showing up earlier this month.
In equity markets, the S&P 500 dropped 2.2%, with cyclical growth sectors like Financials, Energy, and Industrials leading to the downside. Industries associated with travel or re-opening were punished. Airlines were hit especially hard and are now below a level that held throughout the summer.
The future path of the broader equity indexes will likely depend on whether or not hard hit areas like these will quickly recover broken support, or whether the stronger sectors like Tech will ‘catch down’.
Nothing in this post or on this site is intended as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Posts on Means to a Trend are meant for informational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in posts. Please see my Disclosure page for more information.
I don’t know which direction stocks – or any other security – are headed next. No one does for sure. But whether your portfolio is positioned for equities to rocket higher or prepared for impending doom, it’s always important to understand both the bull and bear cases. By understanding where the risks to your thesis are, you’re more likely to know when your thesis could be wrong, and how to take corrective action.
With the stocks on pace for one of their best years ever, the bull argument isn’t hard to see. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high on Thursday, and if there’s one thing we know about all-time highs, it’s that they happen in uptrends. Being a bull is easy. So today I’m putting on my bear hat and trying to find some cracks in the bull case. It starts with a false breakout.
Last week I led things off with a chart of the Materials sector breaking out to new all-time highs. It was another feather in the cap for stock market bulls, whose biggest threat throughout the summer was a lack of participation as equity indexes climbed higher. With the latest breakout, breadth was continuing to broaden. But then Materials declined for 5 straight days. By Thursday they’d fallen back below those previous highs.
There’s a saying among technicians: from failed moves come fast moves. If Materials can’t reclaim that broken support, the risk is lower, not higher.
In the grand scheme of things, though, the Materials sector isn’t that important. Its total market cap comprises less than 3% of the S&P 500 Index, making it among the smallest sectors. The problem is, it’s not just Materials. There’s also a failed breakout in Consumer Staples.
Look, Consumes Staples aren’t that important either. They’re only 5% of the index and not exactly the place you look for leadership during a bull market. I get it. But it’s not just Staples. After Friday’s ugly performance, you can add Energy stocks to the list of disappointing price action.
The Industrials sector has given back progress, too.
Financials got whacked on Friday, as well, but the key support level for them isn’t as obvious. The setups for two key industries – Banks and Insurance – are much cleaner, though. The damage? One failed breakout and one group hanging on by a thread.
Meanwhile, former leadership groups have hit key extension levels from the COVID collapse. Communication Services peaked in August:
Consumer Discretionary kissed its 261.8% extension, backpedaled, and is testing resistance again. There’s no reason it can’t keep going higher, but this would be a logical place for an extended pause – or a reversal.
So who else could lead stock indexes higher? Health Care and Real Estate both peaked in the summer. The Utilities haven’t even challenged their pre-COVID highs. The answer, of course, is Tech. Information Technology makes up more than a quarter of the S&P 500, and not only has it trended higher with the market, it’s been showing relative strength.
If Tech continues to rise, the bear thesis is in trouble. Tech is big enough that it can drag the entire index higher all by itself (and it has before). And for bears, what evidence is there that Technology won’t continue higher? Not much. But since we’re actively searching for bearish signs, here’s one: momentum has yet to confirm the most recent highs.
It seems like a big ‘if’ given the strength, but if prices for the sector decline and confirm this potential momentum divergence, the bear case would start to look a lot more credible.
**Bonus Charts for the Bears**
The discussion above was limited to S&P 500 sectors, but Small Caps are having trouble holding their recent breakout as well.
I’ve never talked about crypto on this blog, mainly because there are so many other people talking about it that not much more needs to be said. But Bitcoin can be a good indicator of risk appetite, and we can add it to the list of assets failing to stay above previous highs.
Nothing in this post or on this site is intended as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Posts on Means to a Trend are meant for informational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in posts. Please see my Disclosure page for more information.
Materials joined the list of sectors setting new highs last week, after spending the last six months stuck below peak levels set in May.
The breakout was led by Chemicals, an industry which makes up 69% of the sector. Chem consolidated healthily above the 161.8% extension from the 2018-2020 decline, with the area near $800 acting as a base throughout the summer. The next extension is up near $1080, and the May highs should act as near-term support on any pullback.
Construction Materials looks similar, having broken out above the the first extension from the COVID selloff after several months of consolidation.
The Metals & Mining industry is still well off peak levels from earlier this year, but has joined in the recent rally and is nearing an incremental high.
The Miners tend to trade closely with the commodities they produce, and this particular industry is heavily influenced by the prices of copper, steel, and gold. Copper and steel prices surged throughout much of 2020 and 2021, but have stabilized in recent months.
As they’ve consolidated, precious metals have started to strengthen. Relative to Base Metals, Precious Metals surged back above the 2018 lows that were broken in late summer.
False breakdowns like these can set the stage for major trend reversals. So are precious metals poised to lead going forward?
Perhaps. Gold just put together its best 2-week stretch in over a year, and has been setting higher lows since the spring.
Longer term, the yellow metal has struggled to digest the former highs set in 2011 and 2012. If prices manage to resolve higher from here, a decade-long base could help drive a substantial move higher.
Silver has been messy for the last year, too, but has rallied since a failed breakdown at the end of September. I try not to put too much faith in traditional chart ‘patterns’, yet the reverse head-and-shoulders pattern that set up over the last quarter couldn’t get much cleaner.
If Gold and Silver both gain momentum, Precious Metals could do more than just outperform their Base counterparts. They could outperform equities. Relative to the S&P 500, Precious Metals broke their 2018 lows earlier this year and are solidly in a downtrend. Yet momentum failed to get oversold on the most recent selloff. Should the current rally continue, a momentum divergence could quickly snowball into a false breakdown and a ratio back above its 200-day moving average.
To be sure, Precious Metals are still in a well-defined downtrend vs. equites. But if a reversal ever comes, it has to start somewhere.
The biggest headwind to outperformance by metals could be from currencies. Commodity prices and relative strength in Materials tend to be negatively correlated with changes in the U.S. Dollar, but, oddly enough, recent strength in metals has coincided with a breakout in the U.S. Dollar Index:
So will the Dollar’s strength put an end to leadership from the Materials space? Will the currency reverse lower? Or can the two buck their historical relationship and rally together?
Nothing in this post or on this site is intended as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Posts on Means to a Trend are meant for informational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in posts. Please see my Disclosure page for more information.
Small cap stocks stopped going up in March. While major U.S. equity indexes like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq enjoyed a (relatively) steady rise so far in 2021, the Russell 2000 small cap index spent nearly 8 months doing nothing at all.
The extended pause came after a strong rally off of the COVID lows, but, despite the lack of progress, prices never convincingly breached their 200-day moving average. In other words, the longer-term uptrend managed to stay intact, even without new highs. Trend analysis posits that we should always expect consolidations to resolve in the direction of the underlying trend, yet as the summer waned and an upward resolution failed to appear, fears of a trend reversal began to rise.
Those fears turned out to be unfounded. Small caps started November with a bang.
The move was foreshadowed by the mid caps, which suffered a similar fate throughout the summer, but began setting new highs in late October:
Fresh highs across the market cap spectrum should alleviate concerns about weak market breadth that plagued equity markets a few months ago, especially when coupled with recent breakouts in the NYSE Advance-Decline Line and the Value Line Geometric Index:
Also joining the list of new highs this week was the Dow Jones Transportation Average (‘driven’ by a certain member’s value doubling on Tuesday):
With participation in the rally broadening, the only question that seems to be left is who will lead the charge over the coming months. My crystal ball is no less foggy than anyone else’s, but if the trend over the past few weeks is any indication, risk appetite is back on the menu, and safety has fallen out of favor. The Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Health Care sectors have all dropped to new lows versus the benchmark S&P 500 Index:
Consumer Discretionary, dominated by risk-on companies like Amazon and Tesla, has led the recent rally after breaking higher from a year-long downtrend. It’s close to challenging all-time relative highs.
Small Caps have obviously lagged equities as a whole since their absolute peak earlier this year, but the group tends to outperform its large cap counterparts during risk-on environments. And the group has outperformed since August after finding support at the 61.8% retracement of the 2020 rally.
Perhaps the most interesting action, though, is taking place in Information Technology. Tech stalled on a relative basis last fall, coincidentally at the same level it did more than 20 years ago during the height of the dotcom bubble. The sector’s been consolidating below that resistance for a year now.
That could be about to change. On Friday, Information Technology had its highest close vs. the S&P 500 in over a year after finally breaking above tough resistance that’d been tested no less than half a dozen times.
Does that mean it’s time for Tech stocks to lead once again?
Nothing in this post or on this site is intended as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Posts on Means to a Trend are meant for informational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in posts. Please see my Disclosure page for more information.
I just got back from vacation. It’s the first true vacation my wife and I have taken with our daughters, and I’m happy to report that we survived. Between a few road trip meltdowns and theme park tantrums, we even managed to have a little fun.
Smoky Mountain National Park is beautiful in the fall. The terrain isn’t nearly as rough as what you’ll find in the Rockies, so it’s great for hiking with the kids. Especially if you’re carrying them on your back (shout out to my awesome wife for rocking the trek up to Grotto Falls).
We also spent some time in Gatlinburg, Tennessee. From the looks of things out there, pandemic fears aren’t hurting tourism demand anymore. The bigger problem is a staffing shortage. “Now Hiring” advertisements blanketed nearly every window on the Parkway shopping strip and in the surrounding area.
My anecdotal experience is overwhelmingly confirmed by available labor market data. The U.S. unemployment rate skyrocketed to 14.8%, the highest since the Great Depression, during the peak of the COVID crisis. It’s fallen almost as quickly. At 4.8%, the U-3 rate is already well below the long-term average.
For the 7.5 million people still looking for work, ample opportunities are available. The most recent estimate of job openings exceeded 10 million. That comes to 1.25 job openings for every job seeker – the highest number ever recorded.
And while rising energy costs and supply chain issues have dominated the financial news cycle of late, if you ask business owners about the biggest problem they face, labor quality far outstrips inflation concerns.
Half of all employers in the August NFIB survey reported job openings they couldn’t fill during the month. Of those with active job openings in August, 91% said there were few or no qualified applicants for the position they were trying to fill. The number of hirers reporting zero qualified applicants for a job posting was the highest in 48 years.
One solution, of course, is to raise wages in order to attract workers. And, again pulling from recent experience, businesses are doing so. I made more stops at fast food restaurants on my 12-hour road trip than I’d care to admit, and drive thru windows were consistently offering $14/hour or more for starting employees in the Midwest. It wasn’t so long ago (or maybe it was) that I was teenager making a healthy $7.25/hour raking gravel and pushing concrete in the hot sun. In any case, compensation is certainly on the rise – and not just along my drive through Missouri and Tennessee. Wages nationwide are up 4.6% over the last year, and rising even faster for production and non-supervisory workers. For that segment, which makes up about 80% of all U.S. workers, the rate of pay increases over the past 24M is better than at any time in the past 35 years.
So to recap, the unemployment rate is below average, wages are rising, and inflation, as has been covered by every media outlet this year, is the highest it’s been in over a decade. Why is it, then, that the Federal Reserve has yet to slow its latest round of quantitative easing and has indicated interest rates will remain at 0% for at least the next year? After all, their so-called dual mandate is to maintain full employment and price stability, which, by these measures, is well on track. Do we really still need such extreme levels of monetary stimulus?
The most obvious (and least cynical) explanation of the Fed’s inaction lies in the size of the labor force. The U-3 unemployment rate provides useful information about the state of the jobs market, but it’s not a perfect tool. The measure excludes from its calculation those who are no longer searching for jobs, like retirees and discouraged employment seekers – groups still feeling the lingering effects of COVID.
When lockdowns were underway and economic activity dried up, countless aging workers were coaxed (coerced?) into early retirement by way of attractive severance packages or layoffs. Higher wages today could entice them to re-enter the labor market, but it’s hard to predict how many of those who’ve tasted the sweet nectar of retired life are willing to return to the grind of a 9 to 5 – no matter the financial incentive. As for discouraged workers, the pandemic changed the way the world operates. Though millions of jobs are available, the skills needed to perform those jobs may not match the skills of those who’ve given up searching. There are also those actively prevented by COVID from returning to work, whether because loved ones need care, or because fear of contagion keeps them at home. These factors have resulted in a labor force that’s still 4.5 million persons smaller than it was in 2019, and when (or if) it will recover is anyone’s guess.
For its part, the Fed has been vocal about taking a broader approach to full employment than in the past, so they clearly believe a number of those who’ve left the labor will return, justifying a continuation of accommodative monetary policy. For the sake of employers nationwide, let’s hope they’re right.
Until then, enjoy some snapshots of my awesome week on the road.
Nothing in this post or on this site is intended as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Posts on Means to a Trend are meant for informational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in posts. Please see my Disclosure page for more information.
Major U.S. stock indices had a disappointing week after setting new highs just before Labor Day, but outside our borders, the Emerging Markets Index has been making lower highs and lower lows for quite some time. It’s been in a downtrend for most of 2021:
China is largely to blame, as Chinese stocks make up the majority of the index’s composition. This year, and especially this summer, we’ve seen a surge in regulatory actions by the Chinese government against large technology companies. From data protection, to private tutoring, to public offerings, to video games, the PRC has seemingly been on the warpath. Chinese technology stocks have felt the pain – the FTSE China Technology Index has fallen 40% from its peak earlier this year.
It’s hard to imagine sentiment being much worse on Chinese stocks than it is now. It seems the government targets a new industry each day, a COVID resurgence has pushed some purchasing managers surveys into contraction territory, and an SEC promise to delist certain Chinese stocks from American exchanges looms overhead. That said, the magnitude of decline in Chinese tech stocks has nearly matched the 2018 trade-war-aided selloff, and the 2018 peak is a logical place to find support.
In addition, the bloodbath in tech has failed to bleed over into other sectors. Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composites broke out on Friday, each closing at the highest level since 2015 in U.S. Dollar terms:
Good or bad, China stocks bear watching in the coming weeks and months.
Nothing in this post or on this site is intended as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Posts on Means to a Trend are meant for informational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in posts. Please see my Disclosure page for more information.
S&P 500 profit margins touched an all-time high in the first quarter of 2021, and, if you ask analysts, they’re set to go even higher: the consensus estimate for forward 12-months profit margins indicates margins will increase to 13.1% from Q1’s 13.0% print. That’s a stark change from the decade-low margins during the first quarter of 2020.
Source: yardeni.com, Standard & Poor’s, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv
Record margins may come as a shock given the preponderance of supply chain constraints, labor shortages, and raw material cost increases that business today are faced with. In Q1, nearly 40% of S&P 500 companies cited ‘inflation’ during their earnings conference calls.
Those problems hardly disappeared in the second quarter. The jobs market is tighter than ever, and material prices continued to rise throughout the early summer. Both a composite of regional Fed surveys for prices paid compiled by Dr. Ed Yardeni and the producer price index for intermediate goods rose to multi-decade highs in the early summer months.
Despite that, margins in Q2 are set to match the 13.0% record in Q1. The chart below, showing the year-over-year change for profit margins by sector, offers a clue as to how margins for the index have been sustained (and why they fell so much in 2020 in the first place). The Financials sector is set to increase margins from 8.6% last year, to more than 21% this year!
Here’s the catch: banks and insurers didn’t suddenly become ultra-profitable businesses. This year’s profits (and last year’s losses) are distorted by massive changes in companies’ expectations for loan losses. Accounting rules dictate that banks estimate the likelihood that customers will fail to pay back loans and then set aside enough money to cover those loans that aren’t repaid. These provisions for loan losses negatively impact net income. When COVID struck in 2020, banks set aside MASSIVE amounts of money. So massive, that the change in loan loss provisions from 2019 to 2020 accounted for about one-third of the entire S&P 500 earnings decline in 2020. Provisions are largely to blame for margins falling below 6% in the first quarter of 2020.
Here’s the other catch: thanks to huge amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus, hardly anyone actually defaulted on their debt. Banks reserved billions of dollars for loan losses that never occurred. And since they no longer expect those losses to occur, in 2021 they get to ‘un’-provision for loan losses. Unsurprisingly, those reserve releases have been pretty massive, too, already accounting for nearly 20% of the entire earnings growth expected for the S&P 500 this year. They’ve been key to pushing margins to record highs over the last 2 quarters.
Given banks have already reversed nearly all the loan loss provisions they’re going to (and will almost certainly do so by the end of this year), that means S&P 500 companies will need to grow margins organically enough to fully offset the reserve release benefit in order to reach the 12-month consensus analyst expectation. It’s certainly a tall order. With costs on the rise, we’ll get to see just how much pricing power businesses truly have.
Nothing in this post or on this site is intended as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Posts on Means to a Trend are meant for informational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in posts. Please see my Disclosure page for more information.
