The Energy sector faces significant headwinds, which skews the risk/reward in favor of bears. For months, we’ve been pointing at tough resistance and waning momentum on both an absolute and relative basis. The sector has been unable to surpass its 2014 highs, and weekly momentum failed to get overbought on the most recent rally. At the very least, we think it takes some time to work off that bearish momentum divergence. At the very worst, prices revert back to the 200-week mean.