Checking in on Energy Prices

The bears fumbled their opportunity.

Crude oil was vulnerable below $73. It even dropped as low as $63 one morning, before buyers stepped in to defend it. Now, prices are back above the first key level of resistance. That doesn’t mean we want to be aggressively buying oil here – at least not until we get above $83 and really show signs that a new uptrend is in place – but we can have confidence that the immediate threat of lower oil prices is now in the rearview mirror.

That’s what we wrote about crude two weeks ago in our Energy sector note. Since then, oil prices have continued to surge. We gapped above the 200-day moving average for the first time in almost a year, leaving sellers gasping for breath in the rearview mirror.

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We still would prefer not to own oil outright until we see a new uptrend in place. That would be on a break above $83 a barrel.

But we’re seeing relative strength elsewhere in the energy space. Gasoline (UGA) is at new 52-week highs after breaking out above stiff resistance that had been in place since last fall.

We’re using Fibonacci retracements from the 2020 decline to help identify key levels. A failed breakout above the 216.8% retracement started this consolidation last year, and we’re targeting a $115 longer-term, which is the 423.6% retracement.

And since Fibs are fractal in nature, we can use a new retracement on recent action to identify shorter-term risk levels. The 61.8% retracement from last year’s decline sits at $65, and should act as support on any pullbacks. We’re also using the 161.8% retracement from that decline to set a near-term target of $90.

Whether our wallets will like it or not, the trend in energy prices is not down. Why shouldn’t we try to capitalize on the moves in our portfolios? We aren’t limited to commodities – we also laid out our favorite trade ideas in the Energy sector for our Members.

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