Stocks are selling off for the third straight month, and with interest rates on the rise, bonds aren’t offering the safe haven that we’ve grown accustomed to over the last 30 years. Maybe it’s time to find somewhere else to hide.
Maybe that place is gold.
Continue reading “Is it Time to Buy Some Gold?”Our job as technicians is to find trends, with the belief that trends are more likely to persist than reverse course.
One of the easiest ways to identify those trends is to look at a stock’s current price and compare it to the level and direction of a moving average of trailing prices. If the current price is above a rising moving average (MA), then prices are in an uptrend. Below a falling MA, a downtrend. Pretty simple, right?
Things are a little more difficult when you get mixed signals: the level says one thing, but the MA trend says another. What if price is above a falling MA? That’s key first step toward a new uptrend, but it doesn’t always mean prices have bottomed. The same logic holds for a price that’s below a rising MA.
So what do you call it when prices are directly on top of a flat moving average? In this case, we call it Health Care.
Continue reading “Top Charts from the Health Care Sector”How’s the stock market doing this year?
The answer, even more than usual, depends on how you define ‘the stock market’. Is it the Dow? The S&P 500? Perhaps the NYSE Composite?
If the market means the NASDAQ, things look pretty great – that index is up nearly 30% for the year. Dig a little deeper, and the picture isn’t quite so rosy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and NYSE Composite are barely in positive territory. The small caps are actually down for the year. This is a market defined by the haves and the have-nots.
It’ll be time to get more positive if Financials can get back above 600 – the level that has caused so many issues over the last 18 months.
On the flip side, things will look very dark indeed if we break last year’s lows. Those lows didn’t occur at some random place. In fact, they couldn’t have occurred at a more important place: the 2007 highs.
Can we bounce back in October? It’s been the second best month for Tech over the last 30 years.
I don’t know which direction stocks are headed next. No one does for sure. But whether your portfolio is positioned for equities to rocket higher or prepared for impending doom, it’s always important to understand both the bull and bear cases. By understanding where the risks to your thesis are, you’re more likely to know when your thesis could be wrong, and how to take corrective action.
Continue reading “Wake Me Up When September Ends”Is there anything more important than the US Dollar these days? We’re on pace for the 10th straight week of gains for the US Dollar Index, a feat matched only once in the history of the index (2014). And for the last few years, the Dollar has had a strong negative correlation with stocks.
The Consumer Staples sector has hovered near the flat line all year, despite a big gain for the benchmark S&P 500 index. Only the Utilities have turned in a worse performance so far in 2023.
Perhaps the final quarter of the year will be a different story? October, November, and December have historically been the best months of the year to own the Staples, so they’re worth watching closely for any signs of a bounce.
Continue reading “Top Charts from the Consumer Staples Sector”The National Association of Realtors’ Housing Affordability Index is cratering.
You’ve more than likely seen this chart before, but even if you haven’t, there’s a good chance you’re feeling the effects anyway. Whether you’re a first time buyer, upgrading to accommodate a larger family, relocating for work, or just looking for a change in scenery, it’s rarely been more expensive for Americans to buy a home.
The problems aren’t hard to identify. The first is the most obvious: home price increases have accelerated.
Continue reading “Will Home Prices Ever Come Back Down?”This is a bull market for stocks.
Despite pullbacks in August and an ongoing selloff to start September, the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are all in uptrends and each recently hit new 52-week highs.
The Financials, however, are not in an uptrend. They’re stuck below last summer’s highs.
