From failed moves come fast moves in the opposite direction. Sometimes, those failures can spark outright trend reversals, marking a significant turning point for prices. More often, though, those fast moves are simply reversions to the mean – a pause of sorts – that eventually work themselves out before the trend continues as before.
We think the latter is most likely what’s happening with the Consumer Discretionary sector. A failed breakout earlier this summer was followed by an 8% decline, the largest pullback since mid-March. Momentum, however, remains in a bullish range, and prices are already trying to re-challenge last summer’s highs.